Oral Abstract Details

Author(s):
Monica Dorning, Douglas A. Shoemaker, Ross K. Meentemeyer

Affiliation:
University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Presentation Type:
Oral

Topic Area:
Monitoring and predicting human influences on landscapes and ecosystems

Abstract Text:
Increases in population and per capita land consumption continue to threaten the persistence of natural ecosystems and create conflicts between demands for development and protection of valuable natural resources. To address this issue, we focused on North Carolina’s Southern Piedmont, a biologically diverse and productive region at the intersection of three rapidly expanding metropolises. Our primary goal is to identify locations which have considerable potential for future development as well as significant value for natural resource conservation. We explored land change scenarios to predict conflicts between these competing priorities and offer alternative futures for meeting development demands while minimizing impacts on natural resources and landscapes. We identified nationally and regionally significant conservation priorities according to recommendations from the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission and the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. Historic land change patterns were mapped using Landsat imagery over four time intervals (1976, 1985, 1996, and 2006) in order to understand the process of urbanization and its potential influence on these conservation priorities. We then used logistic regression of socioeconomic and environmental factors driving urban expansion to estimate regional development potential. This allowed us to identify locations where both the potential for development and value for conservation are high. Using this modeling framework coupled with trends in per capita land use and population projections we forecasted multiple land change scenarios, both following the historical trajectory and applying various conservation planning strategies that increased the cost of development in locations with higher conservation value. Our results indicate that if historic trends continue, over 30% of land developed between 2010 and 2030 will conflict with existing conservation priorities. Our model based on an alternative future that integrates conservation planning, shows that it is possible to reduce future conflict by 75% without hindering demands for urban growth. We also examine how these varying strategies for biological conservation may impact landscape pattern and ecosystem services. The implementation of land use planning guidelines that reduce conflicts between future growth and resource preservation will benefit community planners, developers, and conservation organizations, as well as the people who rely on these natural systems for the services they provide.