Oral Abstract Details
Predicting the spatial distribution of human-black bear interactions across an urban area - (published)
Author(s):
Merkle, J.A., Krausman, P.R., Jonkel, J.J., and DeCesare, N.J.
Affiliation:
Boone and Crockett Program in Wildlife Conservation, Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks
Presentation Type:
Oral
Topic Area:
Application of ecological research in land-use planning
Abstract Text:
Interactions between humans and black bears (Ursus americanus) are increasing throughout North America. Understanding the spatial distribution of incidents will help predict conflicts in future housing developments and help create management plans and ordinances that reduce conflicts in the future. We used human-bear incident data (i.e., phone complaints and conflicts) collected in Missoula, Montana by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks from 2003-2008 to examine the attractants and human impacts of incidents, and develop a model that predicts the spatial probability of incidents. We combined the locations of black bear sightings (n = 307), other incidents (e.g., bear was seen feeding on garbage; n = 549), and sites where proactive management actions were carried out (n = 108), and compared them to 5,000 random locations using logistic regression. Based on literature, we used distance to forested patches, distance to water, and housing density as variables in our model. The overall nature of incidents was diverse. Garbage (38%), fruit trees (10%), and bird feeders (7%) were the most common attractants at incident sites, and in some cases incidents did result in threats to human safety (9%) and property damage (7%). All variables were significant in the predictive model, and the model performed well at discriminating the relative spatial probability of incidents (rs = 0.782; P < 0.01). The probability of incidents increased when residents lived close to forested patches, close to water, and in intermediate housing densities (approximately 6.6 houses/ha). Our results suggest that spatial patterns in human-black bear interactions are predictable and these patterns can be used to understand the potential for conflict in developing areas and to identify areas where preventative management is necessary.
