Oral Abstract Details

Author(s):
Eliza Little

Affiliation:
Yale University

Presentation Type:
Oral

Topic Area:
Ecosystem impacts on human communities (e.g., human health, economic well-being, political action)

Abstract Text:
Land use change encompasses changes to the landscape by people such as urbanization, agricultural usage, and deforestation/reforestation. These processes are implicated in the occurrence and spread of disease vectors and pathogens worldwide due to direct changes to the structure and function of ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, increasing population densities, and the shifting interactions between humans, livestock, and wildlife. Egypt provides an interesting case study for the synergistic risk factors accompanying land use change that can lead to disease outbreak. Since 2006 Egypt has witnessed 85 human cases of avian influenza, 27 of which have been fatal. Most recently 2 cases were reported on August 31st, 2009. There have also been over 1000 poultry outbreaks and millions of birds have been culled. The reasons Egypt is at particular risk to avian influenza include its high population growth and dense inhabitation along the Nile River, the dependence of many Egyptians on backyard poultry farming, and the interactions of wildlife with domestic poultry. Avian influenza, H5N1, outbreaks and ensuing poultry culls have affected commercial and backyard flocks, with a significant impact on food security and Egypt’s socioeconomic situation. Furthermore, due to the extent of backyard poultry rearing, a large proportion of Egyptians are at risk of exposure to H5N1. This study aims to investigate the spatial patterning of avian influenza in Egypt to tease out the relationship between the extent of urbanization and incidence of disease. The study will utilize existing, publicly available data of human and bird cases of H5N1 in Egypt and remote sensing and GIS capabilities to quantify urbanization in Egypt. The streams of data to be incorporated in a GIS are the frequency of poultry outbreaks, density of poultry, density of humans, and the categorization of land use into urban, peri-urban, and rural areas. Geo-spatial analysis of these data streams will allow for a comparison to assess where H5N1 outbreaks are occurring with the highest frequency. The main hypothesis is that peri-urban areas, areas at the perimeters of urban areas, are at the highest risk for H5N1 outbreaks. Understanding the spatial patterning of disease outbreaks according to the extent of urbanization will inform interventions that address the economic livelihoods, food security, and health of Egyptians. Furthermore because diseases such as avian influenza have the prospect of becoming transmissible between humans, disease outbreaks in situ may also have global ramifications.